Will the PC disappear?
Yes. But only in a sense. Towers will be replaced with more mobile devices that dock with your peripherals. I predicted this when the first "feature phones" came out and so far, we have had this functionality a while, so it's more a case of when it's more widespread and we can push out enough mobile horsepower and have good enough internet to stream games (thank you Nvidia -- I mean that with sarcasm). It may not necessarily be smartphones, but something similar in nature.
Mouse/Keyboard replaced by Speech?
Not happening. There's too much that is easier to do with mouse and keyboard compared to speech. Plus, we like the interface. A better question is...
Will the mouse and keyboard be replaced?
Maybe. Currently Machine Learning has enabled a crippled dude to move a mouse cursor with his mind via implants and a wireless transmitter/receiver (it learned to identify specific brain activity each time the guy was told to try and move the mouse by thinking -- may the force be with you). That means, possibly, this could be implemented for the human brain. Possibly we could think words over typing them.
I emphasize possibly because one caveats is that the human brain is easily distracted. While "typing" and "moving the mouse" is achievable via the aforementioned methodology, directly "writing" would be challenging.
While writing a sentence, how many thoughts are you having? How many words do you think while speaking a sentence? Yeah, you'd really need to control your mind.
A last note: Nope, touch screens, no matter how dexterous young'uns are on their phones, will never fully replace keyboards nor mice.
Will the idea of an OS change?
Sadly, yes. It could be 5 years, 10 years, 20 years (doubt that long), but fundamentally we, especially younger gens, are conditioned towards *aaS (I believe it's XaaS: everything as a service). My off-topic question is, "Does Everything as a Service include toilet paper?" I'd like to see how that pans out. Getting back on track: we're moving into the danger zone of traditional PCs being superseded by "cloud". Software as a Service, Desktop as as Service, Gaming as a Service... We're headed towards a world of thin clients connected to our servers of choice (hopefully "choice").
Will AI take over my desktop?
Well, with MS, yes.
What about Linux re the above points?
Well, for all this "cloud" and fancy crap, we still need hardware, albeit in datacenters and not your living room. And what OS costs less, is highly scalable, also largely supported with current hardware, actively developed by big players, and owns ~65% of the global server market? Hint: this forum name minus the tld. So essentially I don't see issues of hardware compatibility with Linux, which does mean some autonomy. The GPL will actually shine here because whatever corpo does on a cloud level can be taken back to the desktop -- or what we can near-as-dammit call one. As for AI, LLMs are coming to Linux Desktop, but unlike Copilot, they will be optional and most of us won't bother with them.
Will AI threaten other things?
Yes. I was once arrogant and adamant that clearly even the greatest minds were overreacting to AI. "An existential threat" you say, pa-lease... I was wrong and will own that. My problem was I was narrowly focusing on the fact that AI does not understand what is input nor what it outputs. At least not as humans do. Think of a super intelligent parrot. So I presumed everyone was thinking about "Super Intelligence" AGI. Well, mostly they were, so I'll take some points back.
However, the real reason it is an existential threat is that it will destroy creativity, help spread disinformation, be utilised in weapons... <insert exhaustive list>... buuuut, the number one reason is it will make humans lazy and stupid(er). We will stop thinking (completely) for ourselves. Why code the game when you can describe it to an LLM and have it generate the code (and assets)? (Okay, as yet that code is trash, but it's getting there) And a picture? And a video? Music? Now AI cannot create, only assimilate and replicate, but just start counting the number of remakes (films, games, TV series) and you'll see human audiences are no longer discerning.
In the end...
The only certainty is uncertainty. Lots of what I have predicted as a teen and young adult came true, from regulating solar power in my country to regulating crypto, and, well I'm treading thin ice so I'll hint at certain political agendas and ask that nobody discuss them, but I was about 50/50 in predicting some of those agendas. However I have been completely wrong, too. The AI example, believing the universe to be toroidal (part of me still does -- sorry), and that we'd see a hoverboard by 2015, and that we'd see a hoverboard by 2025, and likely again now that I am determined we'll see one in 2035 (what can I say).
Fact: Things will change.
Fact: If the human population manages not to destroy itself, then the way we interact with tech in the future will be something we cannot begin to comprehend. Essentailly the only reason we won't see it as witchcraft (that craft) is because we broke away from superstition a couple of centuries back (well, most of us).
Comfort: Unless you're in your 20s, it's unlikely to affect you. Even with TV, radio survived another 6-7 decades. VHS survived a good decade into DVDs. And "retro" games are so timeless we keep doing remakes. So while there's ample demand for something, it takes a lot of effort and marketing (cough social engineering) to push the market forces forward and this is constly in time and financial resources (including cutting losses with R&D spending since you're changing course after investing in two generations ahead).
