Maria Van Kerkhove: How to end the pandemic and prepare for the next - TED Youtube Channel
Maria DeJoseph Van Kerkhove (born February 20, 1977) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist. With a background in high-threat pathogens, Van Kerkhove specializes in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and is based in the Health Emergencies Program at the World Health Organization (WHO). She is the technical lead of COVID-19 response and the head of emerging diseases and zoonosis unit at WHO. - Wikipedia
Omicron drives 255% COVID-19 surge in S. Africa - Reuters
'This pandemic is not done with us' says Oxford jab creator - The Guardian
Omicron FAQ: Things to know today about the new COVID variant and symptoms
From The Guardian [2]:
How fast is the variant spreading?
- Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, estimates that Omicron can infect three to six times as many people as Delta, over the same time period. “That’s a huge advantage for the virus — but not for us,” he told the journal Nature.
- Omicron has spread rapidly in South Africa, to the alarm of researchers worldwide.
- On 1 December, the country recorded 8,561 cases compared with a total of 3,402 reported on 26 November.
- In mid-November, only a few hundred cases were noted. South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) in Johannesburg confirmed that Omicron is spreading quickly.
How easily does the variant evade the body’s anti-virus defences?
- Evidence indicates that Omicron has an advantage over other variants in bypassing the immune system.
- “From what we have learned so far, we can be fairly confident that – compared with other variants – Omicron tends to be better able to reinfect people who have been previously infected and received some protection against Covid-19,” said Prof Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London.
- “That is pretty clear and was anticipated from the mutational changes we have pinpointed in its protein structure. These make it more difficult for antibodies to neutralise the virus.”
- This point was backed by Simon Clarke of Reading University.
- “There is no indication as to how this immune evasion happens, although it can be presumed to be because of decreased antibody binding to Omicron’s mutated spike protein. But decreased T-cell immunity cannot be excluded as a possible contributory factor.”
If the power of previous infection to protect people is reduced, how might vaccines fare against the variant?
- If previous questions raised fairly worrying responses from scientists, most are more optimistic about the power of jabs to safeguard people from Omicron.
- “It is extremely unlikely this variant will evade vaccines completely,” said Prof Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London.
- “The vaccines we have are remarkably effective against a range of other variants but we need more lab and real world data to determine the degree of protection in those vaccinated.”
How likely is infection with Omicron to lead to hospitalisation or death?
- Early evidence does give some grounds for optimism.
-
“The number of cases of Omicron infections does not seem to translate at this stage into the hospitalisation rates we would have expected with similar numbers of cases of Alpha or other variants,” said Balloux.
How might people in high-risk groups be affected by Omicron?
- It is too early to be sure how the variant might affect the elderly or other members of high-risk groups.
- However, some scientists have voiced concerns. “The big issue is the elderly population,” said Kao.
Omicron has similarities to the delta variant's mutation
From CNET [1]:
- COVID latches onto cells using a spike protein in its structure. Omicron has more mutations than the delta variant, which is considered at least twice as contagious as previous strains.
- While it isn't clear yet if omicron is more or less contagious than delta, the presence of those mutations is one cause of concern.
- That may be one reason countries around the world have banned travel from some countries in southern Africa and increased travel restrictions that include a negative COVID test 24 hours before travel, regardless of vaccination status.
Omicron confirmed in 20 US states
- It surfaced last week in California and Minnesota. Now the variant has been detected in 20 states across the country, from Washington to Mississippi and Texas to Utah.
- The US and other countries were already bracing for an increased caseload as colder weather and holiday gatherings brought more people indoors together.
- Now, projections of a winter surge of the dominant delta variant join concerns about omicron's spread.
- Add to that increasing flu infections, and experts worry about a "twindemic," of the two illnesses.
A Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine booster may be needed to guard against omicron
- On Wednesday, BioNTech scientists said two doses of the vaccine it developed with Pfizer may not be enough to defend against the omicron variant and three doses the first two shots and a booster may be needed to restore protection.
- "Individuals who have received two vaccines will most likely not have significant prevention from infection or any type of disease [from the new variant]," said Ugur Sahin, BioNTech's chief executive officer during the Wednesday briefing.
- Sahin said more information is needed to confirm its initial laboratory findings that indicate a third Pfizer vaccine dose is important to guard against the variant.
- Last week, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said all COVID vaccines may have decreased protection against the variant. CNET reached out to Moderna for an update but didn't immediately get a response.
Drug-makers could create an omicron-specific vaccine if needed
- It could take weeks to know for certain how effective the current vaccines are against the omicron variant.
- But Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson say they are already gearing up to create a vaccine designed to combat omicron if needed.
- Moderna said it could have vaccine candidates ready for trial in 60 to 90 days. Pfizer said it could have a new vaccine ready by March, pending regulator authorization.
- Johnson & Johnson said it's working with scientists in South Africa and around the world to evaluate the effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine against the omicron variant and has begun work on a new vaccine designed for omicron.
COVID PCR tests can identify the omicron variant
- Most PCR tests to identify the presence of COVID-19 in the body are free (COVID tests for international travel are the main exception).
- So it's good news that the existing nasal swab test has been found to detect the omicron variant -- a blood test or other procedure so far is unnecessary.
- "Fortunately for us, the PCRs that we mostly use would pick up this very unusual variant that has a real large constellation of mutations," Fauci said Nov. 29 in a press briefing.
Booster shots and vaccines are urged to help prevent omicron's spread
On Dec. 2, Biden announced a plan to help protect the US against the omicron variant this winter. It includes:
- Outreach programs to contact people eligible to receive booster shots.
- Making at-home COVID tests "free" for everyone.
- Tighter travel restrictions that require a negative COVID test 24 hours before departure.
- Paid time off for federal workers to get booster shots.
- Securing antiviral pills as a treatment for people who become infected with COVID-19 (these are recommended but not yet FDA approved).
- Sending 200 million more doses of COVID vaccine to international countries in the next 100 days (280 million have already been sent).
For details, refer to the CNET link [1].
Omicron could become the dominant COVID variant in Europe in months
- In Europe, omicron could become the most common COVID variant in months, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
- "Mathematical modelling indicates that the Omicron VOC is expected to cause over half of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in the EU/EEA within the next few months" due to early understandings of the omicron variant's high transmissibility between people, the body said in a Dec. 2 briefing.
Covid cases in the US on the rise again, but it’s still delta, not omicron, driving the surge
From CNBC [5]:
- Even as more and more states report their first cases of the omicron variant, it’s still the super contagious delta variant that’s driving nearly all new Covid-19 cases in the United States.
- What’s more, it appears cases are once again rising after Thanksgiving.
- Dr. Michael Saag, an associate dean for global health at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, has seen a “notable increase” of Covid patients in need of monoclonal antibody treatments over the past 24 hours.
- “Think about it,” Saag said. “Somebody gets exposed and infected on Thursday or Friday of last week. Then it takes two or three days for incubation.”
- By all accounts, the driver of current Covid cases across the United States remains the delta variant of the coronavirus, not omicron.
- Walensky reported that the current seven-day average of new Covid cases is about 86,400 per day. On this day one month ago, according to CDC data, the seven-day average was 70,000 cases per day.
- “It’s going to take a while for us to know what the impact is going to be globally for people who are infected with omicron,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the Biden administration, said during Friday’s briefing.
- Dr. Mary Bassett, health commissioner for the New York State Department of Health, said her team has ramped up genetic sequencing to detect and study the omicron variant.
South Africa’s coronavirus cases just rocketed past the peak of the first wave
From Business Insider Africa [3]:
- Reported new cases of coronavirus infection in South Africa are now higher than they were at the peak of the first wave.
- SA recorded 19,842 new cases on Wednesday, compared to 13,944 on 24 July last year, when the initial wave of infections peaked.
- The more reliable 7-day moving average of cases – now at 13,493 – is also higher than in July last year, when it never breached 13,000.
- Though hospital admissions are climbing, the number of patients on ventilation and in intensive care remains low.
- The Omicron wave had so far brought relatively mild symptoms, doctors have reported, albeit with heavy warnings that it was too early to tell for sure. Hospital group Netcare this week described a majority of Covid-19 patients as presenting with mild to moderate flu-like symptoms, including headaches, sore throats, and noses either runny or blocked.
- But the fear is still that Omicron's apparently wildly infectious nature could see health systems in many countries overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers, even if a small percentage of those infected are at risk of death.
Having severe COVID-19 doubled the chance of dying within a year in a new study — the risk was even higher for young people
From Business Insider [4]:
- Nearly 180 people left the University of Florida health system alive after being hospitalized with severe COVID-19 during the US's first wave of coronavirus infections.
- But within a year, more than half of those recovered patients had died, according to a study from University of Florida researchers published Wednesday.
- The researchers examined more than 13,000 patient records from January to June of last year, before vaccines were available.
- They identified 93 patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 who died between one and 12 months after they were discharged from the hospital — a sign that long-term complications from the disease continued to jeopardize their health.
- The study found that adults who recovered from severe COVID-19 were twice as likely as uninfected people to die within a year of contracting the disease.
- Younger adults faced a particularly high risk of long-term health problems: COVID-19 patients under 65 who were initially discharged from the hospital were three times as likely as uninfected people to die within a year.
- Adults older than 65 are more likely to succumb to COVID-19 quickly, so many won't ever reach the recovery stage, Mainous said.
- Younger adults, on the other hand, are more likely to survive an initial infection, then suffer from lingering symptoms for months, or perhaps years, to come.
- Researchers aren't sure why COVID-19 patients are dying of long-term complications, but Mainous has a theory. COVID-19 may ignite a persistent inflammatory response, which wreaks havoc on a person's organs even after they've cleared the virus, increasing their risk of heart attack, pneumonia, kidney failure, or stroke.
What you need to know about the coronavirus right now
From DW News [6]:
From WHO:
- Omicron reported in 57 countries, WHO reports.
- The new coronavirus variant omicron has so far been found in 57 countries, the World Health Organization said, warning that the rate of hospitalization resulting from infection is likely to rise.
- The WHO said it needed more data to evaluate the severity of the disease caused by the new variant.
- "Even if the severity is equal or potentially even lower than for delta variant, it is expected that hospitalizations will increase if more people become infected and that there will be a time lag between an increase in the incidence of cases and an increase in the incidence of deaths," it said.
In Africa:
- Botswana is one of the countries that has not seen a rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations despite being among the first countries to detect the omicron variant of the coronavirus.
- South Africa's health regulator SAHPRA on Wednesday approved a third booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The country recorded 20,000 new COVID-19 cases on the same day, a record since the omicron variant was first detected there. It is not clear how many of the infections were caused by omicron.
In Nigeria:
- Nigeria's health minister said some COVID-19 vaccines donated by Western countries only had a two-week shelf life.
- "Some manufacturers offered to extend the vaccine shelf life after the fact, by three months, a practice that, though accepted by experts, is declined by the Federal Ministry of Health because it is not accommodated in our standards," Osagie Ehanire said.
In Asia:
- South Korea reported more than 7,000 daily COVID-19 cases for the first time since the pandemic began, Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said on Wednesday.
- The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said the country registered 7,175 new cases and 63 deaths Tuesday.
- Cases have skyrocketed in South Korea after the country lifted most restrictions and adopted a "living with COVID-19" strategy in early November.
In Europe and UK:
- The Norwegian government announced tighter coronavirus rules on Tuesday, citing rising cases of the omicron variant. Norway has detected 29 cases of the variant so far.
- The United Kingdom reported 131 new cases of omicron compared with 180 a day earlier.
- On Wednesday, Germany reported 69,601 new COVID-19 cases and 527 deaths, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, the country's public health authority. With that, the country recorded its highest level of COVID deaths since February.
- The city of Munich has imposed an alcohol ban in pedestrian zones and at a popular central food market to curb the spread of coronavirus.
- Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced the country's fourth lockdown will end on Sunday but only for people who are vaccinated or have recovered from COVID-19. Restrictions will remain for unvaccinated people.
- Italy's Teatro alla Scala, among the famous opera houses in the world, opened its new season with the gala premiere of Verdi's 'Macbeth' to a fully seated house on Tuesday.
Global daily statistics - Reuters COVID-19 Global Tracker
[1]
https://www.cnet.com/health/omicron...day-about-the-new-covid-variant-and-symptoms/
[2]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/05/omicron-what-do-we-know-about-the-new-covid-variant
[3]
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/t...igher-than-in-the-first-covid-19-wave-2021-12
[4]
https://www.businessinsider.com/severe-covid-doubles-risk-of-death-study-2021-12
[5]
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/04/cov...till-delta-not-omicron-driving-the-surge.html
[6]
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-omicron-reported-in-57-countries-who-reports/a-60052649
PS: I will post here again next week, same time as usual. Thanks for reading, everyone.